We all know the rules, thing like don't rob a port twice but i have one question.

What math does TW use to determine a random bust?

That's long been the $64k question for TW. No one that I know has cracked the rob/bust routine yet.

And frankly, I think TWGS is much more forgiving that HVS is.

According to TW-Cabal, the chance of being busted is 1 in 50 chances,

H

I think TWGS is busting me more. I can't keep experience nearly as well as I used to. Plus I notice that I double bust a lot. Bust one port, move to another and immediately bust again. That seems to happen every third bust or so.

My guess .. and this only being a guess ..
you use mombot ..and it sets steal factor with the steal divider value.
Then use another script that pulls in the steal factor from your config and does the math to get the steal divider ...

This has always been a problem , I have changed all the scripts we use to reflect steal factor and steal divider in the .cfg , to avoid these issues.

Nope. Don't use mombot or dadbot for that matter. Currently, I am using VITO's World SSM java within swath.

There are still settings in SWATH for dealing with the steal and rob factors.

I started this post trying to get a better grip on the math used to determine when a bust happens, not all the different ways to properly rob and steal. This post, like so many others here, is heading off in a different direction again.

C'mon JP, give it up! You know we'll figure it out sooner or later anyway!

I'm pretty sure it's just a pseudo-random probability. Unless you know the seed state and algorithm used, you can't predict it.

Kinda like the Human race eh?

Here's what I think. I think the original math leaned towards using colts with 250 holds. The calculation favors this scenario and is designed to keep you close to your starting experience with maybe a small amount of loss. Originally designed for the early games where SST was the main money maker for evils.

If you do other things, like SSM with an 85 hold CF, then you will lose experience faster. Not because then system notices you are using less holds but because you make less exp per transaction because of the lower hold amount. The fact that you lose a percentage of your exp with each bust is the monkey wrench. If you World SSM in an unlimited game, your experience will be driven down faster. Not because of the SSM but because you can't SSM in a colt. (no scanners)

In the new TWGS, I can start with 30k plus in experience and lose all of that within an hour or less. It tends to level out around 4k. Once I achieve 4k, I can run all day long and only vary up or down about 500 points.

I don't know if that makes any sense to you guys but it does to me. There seems to be an experience level which you won't usually go below and that number is specifically tied to how many holds you have.

From my 1990's web page:

First, from the game menu type * to see what the settings are. If both rob and steal are set to 100%, then it is classic door: rob=3%exp, steal=exp/30. If the settings are 50% rob, 70% steal, then it is in MBBS mode: rob=6%exp, steal=exp/21. Anything else then you will need to apply this forumula:
Rob: 3/(%set)= (x)% exp to rob
Steal: 30*(%set)=exp/(x) to steal
Replace the (%set) with what the game settings are, (x) is the product.

Happy Crimes!

Again, I already know that.....

Exactly - work it backward

Steal: 30*(%set)=exp/(x) to steal

This formula helps you to adjust the number of holds you can steal.

You know how many holds you have tops so....

21%=exp/85

1785 = 85

So if the steal % in the game is set to 21%, you can begin to steal 85 holds at 1785 exp.

The fact that you're staying around 4k exp seems to me the steal % is a bit more generous. And yes, you will stay in the same general exp range for the number of holds you have to work with.

Does this make sense now?

I know how to set the ratios. Been playing a long time and I can work them backwards, frontwards, even sideways sometimes. My original question was the equation that Twar uses to determine random busts. I am interested in how the game determines it's time to bust you.

I believe there's a flaw in the new TWGS as I am double busting every 3rd time. Like right now, I have been running World SSM virtually all day with my Flag and I'm at about 100 million creds. I started with over 30k exp and lost that almost immediately down to about 4k exp. I have remained at 4 k (or thereabouts) for the entire day now. When I started with the high exp, I double busted every third bust. What that means is I would bust one port, move to the next one and immediately bust there. As I got closer to the 4k experience, the double busting started to slow and now at 4k, where I have been all day, it isn't double busting at all.

The double busting phenomenon radically destroys your exp in a very short amount of time. Once that stops, the experience level stays almost flat. If it is designed that way, then you should be able to determine the best exp to start at for SSM, SST etc, thereby sidestepping some of the wasted time and the losses.