To make this simple, you shouldn't start with any more experience than you need. If you need 4k experience to steal 85 holds, then that's what you should start with. Any extra experience will be taken away very quickly.

I give up....

What do you want a formula? The formula that pertains to how often you bust isn't available. The only one that can answer your question is JP, and it seems he's not going to answer your question doesn't it?

I thought maybe we could discuss it, maybe get a few opinions outside of the "how to do it" stream we seem to be caught in here. Maybe between 10 or 15 of us, we could have an epiphany!

But I guess not... so I give up.